Bill Gates: quantum computing could be practical in 3-5 years

Microsoft founder Bill Gates said in an interview with the Yahoo Finance podcast that quantum computing could reach a practical level sooner than many experts expect. In his opinion, the breakthrough could happen in 3-5 years, although he admits that the forecasts of colleagues, such as the head of Nvidia Jensen Huang, point to a longer time frame. Gates noted that Microsoft is actively involved in the development of quantum technologies and plans to introduce a powerful quantum computer as early as this year.

Competition and skepticism in the industry

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Jensen Huang, speaking at CES (Consumer Electronics Show) in January, estimated the timeframe for useful quantum systems to emerge at 15-30 years, emphasizing the difficulty of creating both hardware and specialized software. Gates, while respecting his colleague’s opinion, believes that the progress of Microsoft, Google and other companies could speed up the process. However, Mark Zuckerberg of Meta* also expressed skepticism, saying that quantum technologies are still “more than a decade away from real-world application.”

Mark Zuckerberg’s skepticism was also expressed.

Market Reaction

The pessimistic outlook has already affected the market, with shares of key players such as D-Wave Quantum and Rigetti Computing falling 36% and 22.5% respectively since the beginning of the year. Investors, inspired by the announcement of Google’s quantum chip Willow in December 2024, are now reassessing their expectations.

Investors are now revising their expectations.

The Future of Technology

A breakthrough in quantum computing requires not only new chips, but also revolutionary algorithms. Microsoft continues to invest in research, but success depends on the combined efforts of academia and business. While investors doubt the timing and experts argue about the details, the main question remains: will quantum technology become a real tool in 3-5 years or will it take much longer. The answer will likely depend on whether Microsoft, Google or other players prove more effective.

* Owned by Meta, it is recognized as an extremist organization in the Russian Federation and its activities are banned.